Ominous Sign?

On June 15, the New York Times wrote about the district governor of Arghandab in Kandahar Province, Hajji Abdul Jabbar. He was a key local figure in aiding the American military with counterinsurgency and development in the area, threatened by a Taliban resurgence. But shortly after the NYT article went to press, Abdul Jabbar was killed by a remote-controlled improvised explosive device. While supporters of the U.S. effort there may be tempted to dismiss the assassination as an isolated, unlucky incident, it hard to ignore that it takes place amidst a series of other "unfortunate" events and mishaps.

The long-awaited counterinsurgency in Kandahar now seems "like a desperate hope" according to Foreign Policy's James Traub (who also wrote the New York Times article in question). Initial U.S. progress in the community of Marja has also apparently stalled, and this was only supposed to be a 'warm-up' for the offensive in Kandahar.

The slow progress of the war is further emboldening the anti-war wing of the Democratic party in Congress, who are increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the Administration's efforts there. In the other unlucky incident of the week, General David Petraeus, the widely respected architect of the surge in Iraq (remember that?), apparently fainted during his testimony to Congress on the progress of the war.

While Democrats in the U.S. Congress may still be somewhat reticent to fully express their displeasure with the course of the war, erstwhile U.S. ally Hamid Karzai shares no such compunction. This past week, two of Afghanistan's senior intelligence officials, widely viewed as honest and competent by the U.S., were prompted to submit their resignations in the wake of an attack by the Taliban on Karzai's peace jirga. Karzai is now said to be openly skeptical of whether not the Taliban is capable of being defeated.

Each of these events might not in themselves be taken as indicative of the progress that the U.S. and its allies are making in Afghanistan. Taken together, they are beginning to point to a decisive shift of momentum away from coalition forces in Afghanistan. It is indeed an ominous sign and likely no coincidence that a key supporter of U.S. counterinsurgency strategy was killed hours after a 7-page feature in the New York Times went to press. Whatever the explanation, this latest news of the death of Hajji Abdul Jabbar sends a clear message to the United States of the growing reach and power of the insurgency in Afghanistan at the very moment that U.S. leadership is trying desperately to show that progress is being made.

With the signs of impending U.S. failure in Afghanistan many and multiplying, Obama's Afghanistan surge may well already be dead on arrival.